2025-02-17
Isimo sempi yanamuhla, ubuhlakani bolwazi, beka kuqala.
1. Amathuba e-beta yemboni embulwa ukukhuphuka kwamandla
I-Capacity elasticity iqinisekisa ukuqina kwesidingo:
Ijika lokulungisa elimise okwe-V lisuka kumayunithi angama-50,000+ ngoDisemba kuya ekulungisweni okusheshayo kumayunithi angama-50,000 ngoFebhuwari liqinisekisa izici eziqinile zokulwa nomjikelezo wesidingo semakethe esafufusa. Ukufinyezwa kwesikhashana ngaphansi kokuphazamiseka koMkhosi Wasentwasahlobo (amayunithi angu-40,000 ngoJanuwari) kanye nokubopha kabusha kwama-oda aseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia/Afrika ngemva kokuqaliswa kabusha komsebenzi kwabeka isisekelo sokukhula okuphezulu konyaka ku-25Q1 (uma kuqhathaniswa nesisekelo samayunithi angaba ngu-80,000 ku-24Q1)
2. Isu lemakethe esafufusa: kusukela “ekucosheni imvuthu” kuya “ekugawuleni amakhekhe”
1. Uguquko lwamandla e-Afrika luyaqhubeka: isidingo esiqinile siqhuma ngaphansi kokuwa kwegridi yamandla
I-Congo logic:
I-Afrika akuyona “imakethe esezingeni eliphansi”, kodwa izwekazi kuphela emhlabeni lapho ukutholakala kwegridi kagesi kwehlehlile (idatha yeBhange Lomhlaba):
ENingizimu Afrika: Isibalo sokunqamuka kukagesi ngo-2023 sizofinyelela ezinsukwini ezingama-207, futhi izinga lokungena endlini yokugcina amandla elizihlinzekela lizoba ngaphansi kwama-3%. Umthetho wezokuphatha waseNingizimu Afrika wokwenyuka kwentengo kagesi ngo-12.74% ngo-Ephreli (iNigeria kulindeleke ukuthi ilandele lesi sithombe) ulungisa kabusha isakhiwo sokusebenzisa amandla ezindlini. Izinga lamanje lokungena lamayunithi angu-2,000-3,000 ngenyanga liyisigaba sokuqala kuphela sokuvezwa kokuba sengozini kwegridi, futhi okokusebenza kwesitoreji sasendlini kuyashintsha kusuka ezimpahleni zikanokusho kuya ezintweni ezidingekayo.
ENigeria: Amaphesenti angu-40 kuphela abantu abayizigidi ezingu-120 abangasebenzisa ugesi ngokuzinzile, kodwa izindleko zamajeneretha edizili ziphezulu njengo-$0.5/kWh (Isixazululo sikaDeye singanciphisa izindleko zibe ngu-$0.15/kWh)
2. Ukugxuma kokukhiqiza amandla kwaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia: kungena ngokuqondile enkathini yokugcinwa kwamandla okusatshalaliswa
Ukweqa isigaba sokwakhiwa kwegridi yendabuko kanye nokungena ngokuqondile enkathini yokugcinwa kwamandla okusatshalaliswa. Ngemuva kwesibikezelo sezinga lokukhula kuka-50%+ ukuzwakala kwesidingo sokuzimela komnotho wesiqhingi kanye negebe lamandla edolobha.
3. Ubunye besitoreji sezentengiselwano sase-US buyasondela: “Izindawo zasemaphandleni zizungeze amadolobha”
Njengamanje, isidingo sokulondolozwa kwamandla okuhweba kanye nezimboni emakhaya ajwayelekile siyakhula, siqala ezindaweni zasemakhaya, bese sishanela kancane ezindaweni ezinkulu zezimboni emadolobheni, ngomfutho omuhle.
Iqondise izinhlobo ezintathu zabasebenzisi:
Amaketanga ezitolo ezilula: 45%
Izimboni ezincane neziphakathi: 30%
Imifelandawonye yezolimo: 25%
I-Arbitrage yenqubomgomo: E-Texas, California nakwezinye izindawo, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesistimu yokugcina amandla kungathola:
30% wekhredithi yentela yenhlangano
Uxhaso lokusebenza lwe-US$0.05 nge-kilowatt-hora
Ukwehla kwenani okusheshisiwe kwezisetshenziswa (ukwehla okuphelele eminyakeni emi-5)
3. Ukusungulwa komkhiqizo: hhayi “ukuthuthukisa” kodwa “ukwakha kabusha”
Isistimu ye-Off-grid: isikhali esikhethekile sokuhlasela ezimakethe ezisafufusa
Imikhiqizo engaphandle kwegridi ethengiswa nyanga zonke yamayunithi angama-20,000 (uhhafu e-Afrika/iningizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia) iyizixazululo zokwenza imali zokuntuleka kwengqalasizinda yegridi. Umgomo waminyaka yonke wamayunithi angu-300,000-400,000 uhambisana nemakethe ekhulayo elinganiselwa ku-$1.5 billion.
I-gross profit margin moat yebhizinisi lamaphakethe webhethri
Imikhiqizo yebhethri ye-lithium ehlangabezana nezidingo zendawo kufanele ihlinzekwe, futhi ukucushwa kufanele kuhlangabezane nezidingo zangempela zamakhasimende endawo, futhi ibhizinisi lendawo kufanele lihlelwe kabusha.
Okwesine, izikhonkwane zezimali zokuhlaziya inani
Ukukhula kwamakhasimende abalulekile kusekuxazululeni amaphuzu obuhlungu bekhasimende. Ukugcinwa kwamandla ezimbonini nezohwebo kanye namathuba amakhulu okugcina mahle kakhulu, kugxile ekuthuthukiseni amathuba emakethe e-Asia, e-Afrika naseLatin America, kanye nezimakethe ezisafufusa ezifana nePakistan, India nezinye izimakethe.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-18-2025