2025-02-17
Imeko yedabi yanamhlanje, ubukrelekrele bolwazi, beka kuqala.
1. Amathuba e-beta kwishishini atyhilwa ngokunyuka kwamandla
Ukunwebeka kwamandla kuqinisekisa ukomelela kwemfuno:
I-curve yokulungiswa kwe-V ukusuka kwiiyunithi ze-50,000 + ngoDisemba ukuya ukulungiswa ngokukhawuleza kwiiyunithi ze-50,000 ngoFebruwari iqinisekisa iimpawu ezinamandla ezichasene ne-cyclical yeemfuno zemarike ezikhulayo. Ukutshatyalaliswa kwexesha elifutshane phantsi kokuphazamiseka koMthendeleko we-Spring (iiyunithi ze-40,000 ngoJanuwari) kunye ne-rebound ye-Southeast Asia / imiyalelo ye-Afrika emva kokuqaliswa komsebenzi wabeka isiseko sokukhula okuphezulu konyaka kwi-25Q1 (xa kuthelekiswa nesiseko malunga neeyunithi ze-80,000 kwi-24Q1)
2. Isicwangciso semarike esakhulayo: ukusuka "ukuthabatha imvuthuluka" ukuya "ukusika amaqebelengwane"
1. Uguquko lwamandla eAfrika luyaqhubeka: imfuno engqongqo iqhuma phantsi kokuwa kwegridi yamandla
Ingqiqo engundoqo:
I-Afrika ayisiyiyo “imarike ephantsi”, kodwa lilizwekazi kuphela emhlabeni apho ukugutyungelwa kwegridi yamandla kuye kwahlehla (idatha yeBhanki yehlabathi):
EMzantsi Afrika: Inani lokucinywa kombane ngo-2023 liza kufikelela kwiintsuku ezingama-207, kwaye izinga lokungena kwimizi yogcino lwamandla oluzibonelele ngokwalo liya kuba ngaphantsi kwe-3%. Umthetho wolawulo lwaseMzantsi Afrika wokutsiba kwamaxabiso ombane nge-12.74% ngo-Epreli (iNigeria kulindeleke ukuba ilandele) ulungisa ngokutsha ubume bokusetyenziswa kwamandla ezindlini. Inqanaba lokungena langoku leeyunithi ze-2,000-3,000 ngenyanga kuphela yinqanaba lokuqala lokuvezwa komngcipheko wegridi, kunye nezixhobo zokugcina zendlu ziguquka ukusuka kwizinto zodidi ukuya kwizinto eziyimfuneko.
ENigeria: Kuphela yi-40% yabantu abazizigidi ezili-120 abanokusebenzisa umbane ngokuzinzileyo, kodwa ixabiso lejenereyitha zedizili liphakame kangange-$0.5/kWh (Isisombululo sikaDeye sinokunciphisa iindleko ukuya kwi-$0.15/kWh)
2. Umtsi wokuvelisa amandla we-Southeast Asia: ukungena ngokuthe ngqo kwixesha lokugcinwa kwamandla okusasazwa
Ukutsiba isigaba sokwakhiwa kwegridi yendabuko kunye nokungena ngokuthe ngqo kwixesha lokugcinwa kwamandla okusasazwa. Emva koqikelelo lokukhula kwe-50%+ kukuvakala kwemfuno yokuzimela kwamandla oqoqosho lwesiqithi kunye nomsantsa wamandla ezidolophini.
3. Ubunye bogcino lwentengiso lwase-US luyasondela: “Iindawo zasemaphandleni zingqonge izixeko”
Okwangoku, imfuno yogcino lwamandla orhwebo kunye nemizi-mveliso kumakhaya aqhelekileyo iyanda, iqala kwiindawo ezisemaphandleni, emva koko itshayela kwiindawo ezinkulu zemizi-mveliso ezixekweni, ngesantya esilungileyo.
Kujoliswe kwiintlobo ezintathu zabasebenzisi:
Amakhonkco evenkile aluncedo: 45%
Iifektri ezincinci neziphakathi: 30%
Oomasibambisane bezoLimo: 25%
I-Arbitrage yomgaqo-nkqubo: ETexas, eCalifornia nakwezinye iindawo, utyalo-mali lwenkqubo yokugcina amandla lunokufumana:
I-30% yekhredithi yerhafu ye-federal
Inkxaso-mali yokusebenza ye-US$0.05 ngekilowatt-yure nganye
Ukuhla okukhawulezileyo kwezixhobo (ukuhla kwexabiso ngokupheleleyo kwiminyaka emi-5)
3. Ukuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha: hayi “ukuphucula” kodwa “ukwakha ngokutsha”
Inkqubo engaphandle kwegridi: isixhobo esikhethekileyo sohlaselo kwiimarike ezivelayo
Iimveliso ze-Off-grid kunye neentengiso zenyanga zeeyunithi ze-20,000 (isiqingatha se-Afrika / i-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia) zizisombululo zokwenza imali ngokunqongophala kweziseko zegridi. Ithagethi yonyaka yeeyunithi ezingama-300,000-400,000 zihambelana nokwanda kwemarike malunga ne-US$1.5 yebhiliyoni.
Ubungakanani bengeniso yengeniso yeshishini lokupakisha iibhetri
Iimveliso zebhetri yeLithium ezihlangabezana neemfuno zasekuhlaleni kufuneka zinikezelwe, kwaye uqwalaselo kufuneka luhlangabezane neemfuno zokwenyani zabathengi basekhaya, kwaye ishishini lendawo kufuneka lihlengahlengiswe.
Okwesine, ii-anchors zemali zokuvavanywa kwexabiso
Ukukhula kwabathengi abaphambili kulele ekusombululeni iintlungu zabathengi. Ukugcinwa kwamandla oshishino kunye nezorhwebo kunye namathuba amakhulu okugcina alungile kakhulu, kugxininise ekuphuhliseni amathuba emarike e-Asia, e-Afrika naseLatin America, kunye neemarike ezikhulayo ezifana nePakistan, i-Indiya kunye nezinye iimarike.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-18-2025