2025-02-17
Mamiriro emazuva ano ehondo, ruzivo rwehungwaru, isa pekutanga.
1. Indasitiri beta mikana yakaratidzwa nekukwira kwekugona
Capacity elasticity inosimbisa kudiwa kusimba:
I-V-shaped repair curve kubva ku50,000+ units munaDecember kusvika kururamisa nokukurumidza kune zvikamu zve50,000 munaFebruary inosimbisa hutsika hwakasimba hunopesana ne-cyclical hwekuda kwemusika. Kubatana kwenguva pfupi pasi peKuvhiringidza kweMutambo weChirimo (40,000 units muna Ndira) uye kudzokororwa kwemirairo yeSoutheast Asia / Africa mushure mekutangwazve kwebasa kwakaisa hwaro hwekukura kwegore negore mu25Q1 (zvichienzaniswa nehwaro hwezvikamu zve80,000 mu24Q1)
2. Emerging market strategy: kubva "kunhonga zvimedu" kusvika "kucheka makeke"
1. Shanduko yesimba reAfrica iri kuenderera mberi: kudiwa kwakaoma kunoputika pasi pekudonha kwegetsi remagetsi.
Core logic:
Africa haisi "musika wakaderera", asi kondinendi chete pasi rose uko kuvharwa kwegetsi remagetsi kwadzoreredza (World Bank data):
South Africa: Huwandu hwekudzimwa kwemagetsi muna 2023 huchasvika mazuva 207, uye chiyero chekupinda kweimba yekuzvipa simba rekuchengetedza ichave isingasviki 3%. Mutemo wekutonga weSouth Africa wekukwira kwe12.74% mumitengo yemagetsi muna Kubvumbi (Nigeria inotarisirwa kutevedzera) iri kugadzirisa chimiro chekushandiswa kwesimba mudzimba. Ikozvino yekupinda mwero we2,000-3,000 mayunitsi pamwedzi ingori nhanho yekutanga yekufumurwa kwegridi njodzi, uye midziyo yekuchengetera imba iri kushanduka kubva kuzvinhu zveumbozha kuenda kune zvinodikanwa.
Nigeria: Chikamu che40% chevanhu vane mamiriyoni e120 chete vanogona kushandisa magetsi zvakadzikama, asi mutengo wemajenareta edhiziri wakakura se$0.5/kWh (Deye's solution inogona kuderedza mutengo kusvika ku $0.15/kWh)
2. Kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia simba rekugadzira kusvetuka: kupinda zvakananga munguva yekugoverwa kwesimba rekuchengetedza
Kusvetuka iyo yechinyakare grid yekuvaka nhanho uye yakananga kupinda munguva yekugoverwa kwesimba rekuchengetedza. Kuseri kweiyo 50%+ yekukura kwekufanotaura ndiko kudzokororwa kwesimba rekuzvitonga kwehupfumi hwechitsuwa uye gaka remagetsi emaguta.
3. Humwe chete hwekuchengetedza kutengeserana kweUS hwaswedera: "Nzvimbo dzekumaruwa dzakakomberedza maguta"
Parizvino, kudiwa kwekuchengetedza magetsi uye maindasitiri mudzimba dzakajairwa kuri kuwedzera, kutanga kubva kumaruwa, uyezve zvishoma nezvishoma kutsvaira munzvimbo huru dzemaindasitiri mumaguta, nekusimuka kwakanaka.
Kutarisa mhando nhatu dzevashandisi:
Kureruka kwechitoro cheni: 45%
Madiki uye epakati mafekitori: 30%
Agricultural cooperatives: 25%
Policy arbitrage: MuTexas, California nedzimwe nzvimbo, simba rekuchengetedza system rekudyara rinogona kuwana:
30% federal tax chikwereti
Rubatsiro rwekushandisa rweUS$0.05 pakilowatt-awa
Kuwedzera kuderera kwemidziyo (kuderera kwakazara mumakore mashanu)
3. Kuvandudza chigadzirwa: kwete "kusimudzira" asi "kuvakazve"
Off-grid system: yakakosha kurwisa chombo chemisika iri kusimukira
Zvigadzirwa zveOff-grid nekutengesa pamwedzi kwemakumi maviri emazana (hafu muAfrica/Southeast Asia) ndiwo mhinduro dzekuita mari yekushaikwa kwegridi zvivakwa. Chinangwa chepagore che300,000-400,000 mayuniti chinoenderana nemusika wekuwedzera weUS$1.5 bhiriyoni.
Gross profit margin moat yebhatiri pack bhizinesi
Lithium bhatiri zvigadzirwa zvinosangana nezvinodiwa munharaunda zvinofanirwa kupihwa, uye iyo gadziriso inofanirwa kusangana nezvinodiwa chaizvo zvevatengi venzvimbo, uye bhizinesi remuno rinofanira kugadziridzwa.
Chechina, zvitsigiro zvemari zvekuongorora kukosha
Kukura kwevatengi vakakosha kuri mukugadzirisa marwadzo evatengi. Indasitiri neyekutengesa magetsi ekuchengetedza uye mikana mikuru yekuchengetedza yakanaka kwazvo, yakatarisana nekuvandudza mikana yemusika muAsia, Africa neLatin America, uye misika iri kusimukira yakaita sePakistan, India nemimwe misika.
Nguva yekutumira: Feb-18-2025